Zeng Xianghong Li Linlin

［Abstract］The 2016 US presidential election subverted the expectations of the mainstream media and polling agencies in the United States, with Donald Trump winning the presidency against Hillary Clinton in an underdog race. The unexpected election results have sparked heated discussions in the United States and even in the international community. As for the reasons of the polls deviation of this election,the current research results are mainly focused on the problems of the electoral college and the unscientific operation of the poll. It is worth noting that existing research ignores the important fact that there is a large gap between Trump’s support rate during the election period and actual results. Considering the psychological factors of individual voters,it can be found that trump’s victory has a fairly solid public opinion foundation. In the process of globalization,the American people, especially the lower and middle class whites, are facing challenges such as unequal distribution of wealth, impact on traditional cultural values, and intensification of ethnic conflicts. These challenges have triggered public identity anxiety in terms of economy, culture, and security. This sentiment has become an important reason why the whites from the middle and lower class support Trump. The reason why the polls failed to predict Trump’s victory accurately was that voters disguised their true preferences for fear of social pressure. Preference falsification is widespread within the international community, which makes it more complicated and difficult for researchers and poll institutions to predict and explain social trends through survey methods. It also prompts us to rethink western democratic processes.