Wang Jinguo, Yao Mei

Less than a year after the violent conflict and ceasefire in Nagorno Karabakh in 2020, disputes between Armenia and Azerbaijan have resurfaced. At the same time, certain changes have taken place in the internal and external situations faced by the two countries. In the future, the sovereignty of Naka will still be the "Pandora's box" that triggered the armed conflict between the two sides.

Since Armenia's defeat in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict in 2020, there have been growing calls for the resignation of prime minister,Nikol Pashinyan. Finally, Nikol Pashinyan issued a resignation statement, and Armenia held early parliamentary elections in advance (on June 20). Nikol Pashinyan dramatically continued to take power in the country and was officially appointed prime minister on August 2. Under this situation, the crossing of Azerbaijani soldiers and the triggering of military conflict can be regarded as the open contempt and political difficulties of the Azerbaijani side for Nikol Pashinyan's return to power. In the recent series of conflicts, Armenia's uncompromising attitude not only defends its territorial sovereignty, but also shows that Nikol Pashinyan hopes to regain the trust of the domestic people. It is an important factor that Armenian leaders must weigh in the domestic political competition whether they are tough to win public support or lose trust and step down again. Azerbaijan is another scenario. After winning the Nagorno Karabakh conflict in 2020, the nationalist mood in Azerbaijan is rising day by day, and the reputation of President Aliyev has soared to an all-time high. At the same time, the voice of Afghanistan for continuing military action, completely defeating Armenia and recapturing all the territory of the Naka region has also continued to rise.

Behind the territorial dispute, it is inseparable political game of major powers inside and outside the region, including Russia,United States, Turkey, Iran.Before the core interests of the two countries are resolved, the territorial dispute may escalate again at any time.