AbstractIn the first wave of international protests of the ‘colour revolution’, which mainly affected countries of Commonwealth of Independent States at the beginning of the 21st century, the opposition in these states mobilized the masses through personnel, organization and discourse, encouraging the masses to participate in anti-government movements. Due to the different resources under their control, the mobilization capacity of the oppositions varies from country to country. When the opposition has a strong mobilization capacity, if the government is weak and incompetent in dealing with it, the ‘colour revolution’ can easily succeed as the cases in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. Due to the split of the ruling clique, the defection of security forces and the mistakes of the leaders, the three governments were unable to cope with the mobilization of the opposition, which ultimately led to the change of regime. However, when the opposition is weak in mobilization and the government is tough and efficient in response, the ‘colour revolution’ will easily fail. Countries such as Kazakhstan, Belarus, Azerbaijan fall into this category. Whether the ‘colour revolution’ occurs in the Commonwealth of Independent States is not the cause of the opposition or the government, it is affected by the interaction between the two.

Key Words‘Colour Revolution’; Resource Mobilization Theory; Commonwealth of Independent States; Mobilization Capacity

AuthorsZENG Xianghong, Ph.D, Professor, Institute for Central Asian Studies and School of Politics and International Relations, Lanzhou University; LIAN Xiaoqian, Graduate Student, School of Politics and International Relations, Lanzhou University.