by Zhou Ming

The Eurasian Economic Union is Russia’s latest attempt to integrate the post-Soviet space, whose success largely depends on its member states recognition and participation. Therefore, when analyzing the development trajectory and future trend of the Eurasian Economic Union, it is worth paying attention to the participation of small and medium-sized members. Kazakhstan is the most powerful member of the Eurasian Economic Union except Russia, and its participation is crucial for the organization. However, Kazakhstan’s perceptions and participation have changed in a subtle way, from initially positive welcoming to later cautious supporting. The paper argues this change is affected by structural constraints and elites‟ preferences. Russia’s dominant position in the EEU, the relative stability of Kazakh’s ethnic group structure, Kazakhstan’s geographical location and other structural factors make it imperative for Kazakhstan to participate in the EEU. However, the Ukrainian crisis has, to some extent, weakened Russia’s structural power in the post-Soviet space and increased Kazakhstan’s freedom of action. Meanwhile, in order to maintain its international and regional status after the crisis, Russia has been seeking to speed up the integration in the post-Soviet space. Nevertheless, some actions taken by Russia were interpreted by Kazakh elites as a threat to their sovereignty and independent development path, which further weakened Kazakh elites‟ recognition and participation in the Eurasian Economic Union.